1,000 Points Capture Strategy || Bank Nifty and Nifty Big Move Identify || Big Move Capture Strategy
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Why 1.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Roughly ZERO per-trade edge (+0.03R) — real costs eat whatever is there
- ✕ Only 36% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 4 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -71% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Range breakout strategy: identify 2+ days of sideways consolidation (base), then trade the breakout of that range with 1:4 risk-reward ratio on NIFTY/BANKNIFTY. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 35,930 trades, win 36%, payoff 1.90, expectancy +0.03R/trade (avg -0.01%/trade).
This is essentially breakeven. Regime-dependent — positive in only 33% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -12% | -36% | -19% | +23% | -25% | +15% | -16% | -14% | -10% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2015 | 33% | -0.10R | -0.82% |
| 2019 | 3927 | 34% | -0.06R | -0.52% |
| 2020 | 4434 | 43% | +0.23R | +1.48% |
| 2021 | 4556 | 39% | +0.13R | +0.53% |
| 2022 | 4562 | 37% | -0.00R | -0.26% |
| 2023 | 4927 | 40% | +0.14R | +0.40% |
| 2024 | 4769 | 35% | -0.00R | -0.26% |
| 2025 | 4736 | 32% | -0.09R | -0.74% |
| 2026 | 2004 | 30% | -0.13R | -0.78% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 224 | 31% | +0.2% | +55% | +45% | +133% |
| 2 | ████████ | 190 | 43% | +4.2% | +69% | +794% | +113% |
| 3 | ████████ | 77 | 26% | -0.6% | +31% | -43% | +101% |
| 4 | ████████ | 203 | 47% | +7.5% | +108% | +1527% | +88% |
| 5 | ████████ | 215 | 36% | +0.4% | +50% | +83% | +55% |
| 6 | ████████ | 229 | 45% | +1.3% | +37% | +291% | +49% |
| 7 | ████████ | 226 | 33% | -0.1% | +22% | -32% | +49% |
| 8 | ADANIENSOL free peek | 213 | 39% | +2.3% | +94% | +484% | +48% |
| 9 | ████████ | 231 | 35% | -0.0% | +26% | -9% | +38% |
| 10 | ████████ | 233 | 31% | -0.7% | +20% | -159% | +36% |
| 11 | ████████ | 232 | 44% | +5.2% | +73% | +1200% | +34% |
| 12 | ████████ | 242 | 38% | +0.5% | +56% | +119% | +34% |
| 13 | ████████ | 246 | 37% | +0.5% | +27% | +126% | +28% |
| 14 | ████████ | 230 | 29% | -1.1% | +17% | -254% | +28% |
| 15 | ████████ | 193 | 35% | -0.1% | +29% | -11% | +25% |
| 16 | ████████ | 272 | 37% | -0.1% | +39% | -16% | +24% |
| 17 | ████████ | 223 | 35% | -0.0% | +25% | -3% | +19% |
| 18 | ████████ | 251 | 37% | +0.3% | +32% | +64% | +17% |
| 19 | ████████ | 220 | 50% | +6.1% | +178% | +1340% | +14% |
| 20 | ████████ | 219 | 38% | +0.1% | +33% | +20% | +12% |
| 21 | ████████ | 227 | 33% | +0.3% | +37% | +70% | -53% |
| 22 | ████████ | 218 | 29% | -0.5% | +34% | -115% | -50% |
| 23 | ████████ | 256 | 33% | -0.2% | +50% | -42% | -49% |
| 24 | ████████ | 246 | 30% | -0.5% | +36% | -118% | -48% |
| 25 | ████████ | 225 | 34% | -0.5% | +18% | -105% | -47% |
| 26 | ████████ | 238 | 34% | -0.6% | +37% | -146% | -44% |
| 27 | ████████ | 225 | 36% | -0.1% | +44% | -33% | -43% |
| 28 | ████████ | 252 | 38% | +0.0% | +24% | +10% | -42% |
| 29 | ████████ | 230 | 35% | +0.2% | +32% | +56% | -42% |
| 30 | ████████ | 234 | 37% | -0.6% | +34% | -147% | -41% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 386 | 37% | -0.04R | -0.32% |
| BANKNIFTY | 361 | 38% | -0.04R | -0.37% |
Full transcript (2779 words)
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