A
ADX + 20MA Pullback — “The Single Setup”
YouTube · watch on YouTube ↗
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)
- “Trade only when ADX(14) > 25 (strong trend); buy pullbacks to the 20 & 50 moving averages; trail the stop at 50MA − 1.8×ATR. Buy calls when trending up.”
Verdict
The best strategy we've tested — and the only one where adding a filter improved the edge. The ADX>25 trend-strength gate roughly triples expectancy (small-cap +0.42R/trade, payoff 3.2×) while cutting trades by two-thirds. It's genuinely sound trend-following.
How we tested it
Mechanized on daily data across 159 large/mid-caps and 138 small-caps over 8 years, with vs without the ADX>25 filter, 0.25% round-trip cost. Year-by-year regime check.
But it's still regime-dependent: hugely positive in 2020/2023 bull years, negative in 2025 and 2026. It's long-only equity (survivorship-inflated in small-caps), and must be traded as equity — the call-buying overlay pays the volatility tax and erases the edge. Not a money-machine, but the ADX filter is a real, reusable insight.